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Analysis: Bitcoin shows significant resilience, and options trading suggests that market concerns about a crash have eased
According to QCP Capital's latest market commentary, despite the escalation of tensions in Iran over the weekend pushing oil prices above $115 and global stock markets turning defensive, btc-42">Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience.
Options flow also indicates that market concerns about further declines have eased, with put skew moderating compared to the spike earlier last week. The report notes that U.S. Treasuries and gold have failed to provide their usual safe-haven function, as soaring oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns and push yields higher, with the dollar becoming the preferred safe-haven asset. Downside protection for Bitcoin still exists, but options flow reflects more nuanced expectations, such as the purchase of straddles expiring in April, indicating that the market anticipates continued volatility rather than a one-sided decline.
The highest open interest for March is concentrated in $75,000 and $125,000 call options, showing that despite ongoing macro uncertainty, optimism towards Bitcoin is returning. This week's focus includes Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's jobless claims, and Friday's core PCE and JOLTS job openings data.
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