AUD/USD Drops After 89K Jobs Surprise—What’s Next If $0.6410 Breaks?

The Aussie started Thursday strong, getting to $0.6450 after Australia’s jobs numbers were released. 89,000 new jobs in April, way above the 20,000 expected and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. The Q1 Wage Price Index also beat expectations, 3.4% YoY, so investors can bet on consumer spending. Risk sentiment was further boosted as the US and China reached a preliminary agreement to cut tariffs. The US will reduce duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China will cut its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This de-escalation helped global risk assets and the Aussie. Key Points: US Dollar Capping Aussie Gains Despite the good Aussie data and improved global trade outlook the AUD/USD failed to hold gains as the US dollar remained strong. The DXY is around 100.90 as markets await US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data which will shape Fed rate expectations. Markets are pricing in a 74% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut by September, down from 90%+ just a few weeks ago. April’s CPI was softer than expected at 2.3% YoY so the Fed is cautious but not dovish. This macro backdrop is capping the AUD’s rally despite the domestic positives. AUD/USD Technical Setup: Bears in Control AUD/USD is at $0.6411 after breaking below the 50 hour EMA ($0.6437) and an ascending trendline from earlier this week. A descending trendline has formed and the MACD is bearish. Trade: Unless we get back above $0.6442, the downside should continue. Price structure, MACD and EMA all point bearish so the break could open a clean short.