Bettors are wagering on Pakistan striking India by Friday
By: thestreet|2025/05/09 03:00:12
0
Share
Tensions between India and Pakistan appear to be escalating, but have also been trending in the crypto prediction market. The Pahalgam attack 2025 that occurred on 22 April 2025, where 26 people were murdered by terrorists at Pahalgam in the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir. According to reports, five armed men with M4 carbines and AK-47 rifles opened fire at a popular tourist spot in the Baisaran Valley. Weeks later, on May 7, India launched Operation Sindoor and targeted terrorist camps in Pakistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denied funding terrorists and claimed that the Operation Sindoor has claimed civilian lives in Pakistan.According to the BBC, Pakistan claims 31 people died and 57 injured by air strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir since Wednesday morning.Now, Polymarket betters believe there is a 99% chance of a Pakistani air strike might hit the Indian soil by Friday, May 9, 2025. The odds surged by 27% within a day, reflecting the growing geopolitical anxiety. Polymarket betters place over $3.3 million in bets as odds of a Pakistani military strike on India surge to 99%. Source: Polymarket. The event had already drawn over over $3 million in bets, making it one of the platform’s most-watched markets. Usually in prediction markets like Polymarket, each "bet" or "share" is bought for a few cents to a dollar, therefore this volume points to a very high degree of participation—probably tens of thousands of individual transactions.On Apr 24, Polymarket saw a surge in bets on the ongoing India-Pakistan war where bets rose as high as 13% before dipping to 10%. Financing terrorismInterestingly, a recent report from the Bulletin of Business and Economics journal has found an increasing association between crypto scams and terrorism funding. The report warns that militant groups often exploit crypto’s ‘privacy’ feature to finance operations related to terrorism. It also highlights large-scale global scams like Squid Coin and Africrypt, along with a $100 million fraud in Pakistan, to show how bad actors take advantage of the digital asset industry. However, it is important to note that no direct evidence has emerged linking cryptocurrency to the Pahalgam terror attack. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $101,071.92, ahead of geopolitical tensions.
You may also like
The large models in the United States are moving towards closure in the name of security
The government successfully inserted itself as an approver between commercial AI models and their users for the first time.
Morning Report | CoinEx becomes a key hub for Iran to evade sanctions, involving over $3.8 billion in funds; Kalshi seeks a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially rising to $40 billion
Overview of Important Market Events on June 25
From the white-haired stock god to the billionaire fund mogul, the smart people shorting Nvidia are all getting rich using the same framework
Give up on heavily investing in Nvidia's "nine major bottlenecks"! This article analyzes the underlying logic behind top AI investors making billions: physical infrastructure such as electricity, HBM, and optical interconnects are the true keys to wealth in AI hardware.
Why do cryptocurrency projects always like to change their names?
In many cases, the old names of encryption projects have no competitive advantage, only historical baggage.
Global Launch: As predictions become the most scarce asset in the AI era, Manadia is defining the next generation of the value internet
The trusted AI prediction ecosystem Manadia, which has secured $7 million in funding from well-known institutions like OKX, will globally launch in June. The core token UMXM has already been listed on multiple mainstream platforms, inviting you to seize the new blue ocean of the trillion-level predi...
Who is footing the bill for the $64 billion accounting frenzy?
Affected by Bitcoin falling below $60,000, publicly listed companies heavily invested in this asset are facing huge paper losses and valuation discounts, and their debt structure and accounting standards may trigger structural liquidity risks in the future.
I never expected that the first application of AI x Crypto would be in security auditing
AI has accelerated attack efficiency and also promoted the upgrade of defense systems. The security audit sector is undergoing a transition from a dividend model to a competitive model.
What is your view on Binance's competitive advantages?
When the dividends of rule arbitrage gradually approach zero, can we produce product strength, governance capability, and trust that are commensurate with its scale?
ETH has entered a non-consensus phase, and the turning point is approaching!
This has nothing to do with the Ethereum Foundation or Ethlabs; Ethereum needs to win by solving real problems.
The shift in the cloud of the air: from despising stablecoins a year ago to the high-profile entry of capital today
It can continue to question the cost-effectiveness of stablecoins in the G10 currency corridor, but it cannot ignore the structural opportunities of stablecoins in emerging markets, corporate finance, and on-chain settlements.
The survival dilemma of small and medium exchanges behind the withdrawal anomalies exposed by AscendEX
The living space is constantly being compressed.
Why Is Bitcoin Falling Below $60K? 5 Key Market Drivers Explained
Bitcoin has dropped sharply amid ETF outflows, Strategy stock weakness, AI stock rallies, and changing Fed expectations. Explore the key forces driving BTC’s latest correction and what traders should watch next.
Bitcoin vs. Gold in 2026: Which Asset Performs Better in Different Markets?
Bitcoin vs. gold in 2026: Why are both assets falling, and what does their changing correlation mean? Discover what drives Bitcoin and gold prices and how traders can navigate different market conditions.
Morning News | The draft amendment to the People's Bank of China Law aims to clarify the legal status of digital renminbi; South Korea will transfer about 40 unregistered virtual asset service providers to law enforcement agencies
Overview of Important Market Events on June 24
The cryptocurrency industry has entered the "Show Me" era: merely relying on vision is no longer enough
The awareness level of the audience in the cryptocurrency industry—including media, institutions, and retail investors—is steadily increasing, and this trend has become a foregone conclusion.
Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's new structure: Reaffirming self-sovereignty amid institutional trends
The Ethereum Foundation has announced a new five-layer working framework, clarifying the focus of future development and reaffirming its commitment to decentralized core values amidst the wave of institutionalization.
Former SpaceX engineer reconstructs the financial execution system using first principles
Plan Execution Lab completes angel round financing for Singapore family office, with a valuation of 50 million USD.
Standard Chartered Bank sings a 50x rhapsody again, aiming for AAVE to reach 3500 USD
The throne of DeFi lending still exists, but the foundation beneath the throne needs to undergo a reconstruction or reinforcement.
The large models in the United States are moving towards closure in the name of security
The government successfully inserted itself as an approver between commercial AI models and their users for the first time.
Morning Report | CoinEx becomes a key hub for Iran to evade sanctions, involving over $3.8 billion in funds; Kalshi seeks a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially rising to $40 billion
Overview of Important Market Events on June 25
From the white-haired stock god to the billionaire fund mogul, the smart people shorting Nvidia are all getting rich using the same framework
Give up on heavily investing in Nvidia's "nine major bottlenecks"! This article analyzes the underlying logic behind top AI investors making billions: physical infrastructure such as electricity, HBM, and optical interconnects are the true keys to wealth in AI hardware.
Why do cryptocurrency projects always like to change their names?
In many cases, the old names of encryption projects have no competitive advantage, only historical baggage.
Global Launch: As predictions become the most scarce asset in the AI era, Manadia is defining the next generation of the value internet
The trusted AI prediction ecosystem Manadia, which has secured $7 million in funding from well-known institutions like OKX, will globally launch in June. The core token UMXM has already been listed on multiple mainstream platforms, inviting you to seize the new blue ocean of the trillion-level predi...
Who is footing the bill for the $64 billion accounting frenzy?
Affected by Bitcoin falling below $60,000, publicly listed companies heavily invested in this asset are facing huge paper losses and valuation discounts, and their debt structure and accounting standards may trigger structural liquidity risks in the future.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com
