Bitcoin Price Dips Below 365-Day Moving Average: Is This a Bear Market Signal or Just a Bull Market Pullback?

By: crypto insight|2025/11/06 21:00:05

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin recently dipped below its 365-day moving average, a key indicator that often signals potential shifts in market trends, sparking debates about whether this marks the start of a bear market.
Despite the drop to around $98,900, historical data shows Bitcoin has recovered from similar pullbacks in past bull cycles, with rebounds often exceeding 40% within 60 days.
Analysts view this as a possible “routine cleanse” rather than a prolonged downturn, especially if Bitcoin holds above critical levels like $100,000.
Macro events, such as U.S. rate decisions and political developments, could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, potentially leading to a year-end rally.
Traders are advised to monitor technical indicators closely, using reliable platforms to stay informed amid volatility.

Imagine you’re riding a rollercoaster that’s been climbing higher and higher for months, only to hit a sudden dip that makes your stomach drop. That’s kind of what Bitcoin traders felt recently when the cryptocurrency’s price slipped below a crucial threshold. We’re talking about the 365-day moving average, a line on the chart that acts like a weather vane for the overall market direction. When Bitcoin falls under it, it’s like the wind shifting—some see storm clouds gathering for a bear market, while others spot clear skies ahead for more gains. Let’s dive into what happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for you as an investor or trader navigating this volatile world.

Bitcoin, the king of cryptocurrencies, took a notable tumble, briefly touching lows around $98,900 before bouncing back a bit. At the time we’re discussing this—as of 2025-11-06—it’s trading around $101,800. This isn’t just random price action; it crossed below the 365-day moving average, which tracks the average price over the past year. Think of it as the market’s long-term heartbeat. When the price stays above it, confidence is high, like a steady pulse. But dipping below? That’s when panic can set in, as it often hints at broader shifts.

Understanding the 365-Day Moving Average: A Key Bitcoin Price Indicator

To really grasp this, let’s break it down without getting too technical. The 365-day moving average is essentially a smoothed-out view of Bitcoin’s price over a full year. It’s not swayed by short-term ups and downs; instead, it gives you the big picture. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price has fallen below this line, it’s been a red flag. For instance, back in 2022, a similar breach was the nail in the coffin for the bull run, confirming the start of a bear market that dragged on for months.

But here’s where it gets interesting—and reassuring for optimists. This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has flirted with this level in recent cycles. Data shows it briefly dipped below in April of this year, only to recover and push toward all-time highs above $126,000 in early October. It’s like a boxer taking a jab but shaking it off to come back stronger. Analysts point out that these moments can act as a “routine cleanse,” shaking out weak hands and setting the stage for fresh rallies. In fact, looking at past bull markets, corrections of 20% or more—like the one we’re seeing now—have often been followed by rebounds of 40% within just 60 days.

Compare this to traditional stocks. The S&P 500 has its own moving averages that investors watch like hawks. When it dips below a long-term one, markets can turn bearish, but savvy traders know it’s often a buying opportunity. Bitcoin, with its higher volatility, amplifies this effect. It’s not just numbers on a screen; it’s a reflection of global sentiment, influenced by everything from adoption rates to economic policies.

The Bull vs. Bear Market Debate: What Analysts Are Saying

The big question on everyone’s mind: Is this the dawn of a bear market, or just a hiccup in an ongoing bull run? Voices in the crypto space are split, but the evidence leans toward caution without full-blown panic. One research head highlighted that this drop was the “final confirmation” for the 2022 bear market, urging Bitcoin to reclaim the average quickly to avoid deeper trouble. Yet, others see it differently. A research analyst described this as the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle, emphasizing that it’s more of a market reset than the start of a long winter.

Evidence backs this up. Bitcoin’s price has dropped more than 20% from its peaks, technically entering bear market territory by some definitions. But historical patterns show that in bull phases, such drawdowns are common and often short-lived. For example, during previous cycles, Bitcoin has seen multiple 20%+ corrections before resuming its upward climb. It’s like pruning a tree—cutting back helps it grow taller.

On the flip side, bears argue that sustained time below the 365-day moving average could signal deeper issues, especially with volatility spiking. Trading volumes have surged as uncertainty builds, and adoption metrics, while still growing, face headwinds from regulatory chatter. But let’s not forget the positives: Bitcoin’s network fundamentals, like hash rate and transaction volumes, remain robust, suggesting underlying strength.

To make this relatable, think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes poker game. The 365-day moving average is like the table’s average bet size. Dropping below it means the game’s getting riskier, but experienced players know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. Platforms like WEEX, known for their user-friendly interfaces and real-time analytics, make it easier to monitor these indicators without the headache. WEEX stands out by offering seamless tools for tracking moving averages and volatility, helping traders align their strategies with market realities—all while prioritizing security and ease of use, which builds trust in turbulent times.

Historical Context: Lessons from Past Bitcoin Price Volatility

Let’s step back and look at the broader story. Bitcoin’s journey has been a wild ride since its inception. Remember the 2017 bull run? It soared to new heights, only to crash hard in 2018 when it repeatedly failed to hold above key moving averages. Fast forward to 2021, and we saw a similar pattern: euphoria followed by a bear market triggered by macroeconomic pressures like inflation and rate hikes.

In contrast, the current cycle—as of 2025—has been marked by stronger institutional adoption. Big players are diving in, from corporations holding Bitcoin on balance sheets to governments exploring it as a reserve asset. This adoption buffers against pure speculation-driven crashes. Volatility, while inherent to cryptocurrencies, has actually trended lower over time as the market matures. Data from past years shows that Bitcoin’s average volatility index has decreased, making dips like this feel less catastrophic.

Analysts often compare Bitcoin to gold during economic uncertainty. Just as gold shines in inflationary times, Bitcoin has positioned itself as “digital gold.” When it dipped below the 365-day moving average in previous cycles, it often coincided with global events—like the 2022 market crash amid rising interest rates. Today, with potential U.S. rate decisions looming in December, the stage is set for either a bounce or a deeper slide. One investment head noted that holding above $100,000 is the “line in the sand” for avoiding a true bear market. If it holds, we might even see a festive rally, much like holiday boosts in traditional markets.

Persuading you to stay engaged, consider this: Every major Bitcoin bull market has had its doubters during pullbacks. Those who panicked and sold often regretted it when prices rebounded. By using evidence-based tools on platforms like WEEX, which provide detailed charts and alerts for moving averages, you can make informed decisions rather than reactive ones. WEEX’s commitment to transparency and advanced trading features enhances your ability to navigate these debates, positioning it as a go-to for both novices and pros in the cryptocurrency space.

Recent Updates and Social Buzz: What’s Trending on Bitcoin Price and Market Trends

As of 2025-11-06, the conversation around Bitcoin’s dip is heating up across social media and search engines. On Google, some of the most frequently searched questions include “What is the 365-day moving average for Bitcoin?” “Is Bitcoin entering a bear market in 2025?” and “How to trade Bitcoin during volatility?” These queries reflect a mix of curiosity and concern, with users seeking explanations and strategies to weather the storm.

Over on Twitter (now X), the buzz is intense. Hashtags like #BitcoinPrice and #BearMarket are trending, with users debating the implications. A recent post from a prominent crypto analyst echoed the original concerns, stating, “Bitcoin below 365-day MA—echoes of 2022, but macro setup is different this time. Watch for quick recovery.” Another viral thread discussed adoption challenges, noting how volatility might slow mainstream uptake but also create buying opportunities.

Latest updates include an official announcement from a major blockchain conference, highlighting Bitcoin’s resilience amid dips, with speakers predicting a push toward $200,000 by year’s end if key supports hold. Twitter posts from influencers have amplified this, with one saying, “This dip is a gift—load up before the Santa rally!” Discussions also tie into broader topics like U.S. political shifts under President Trump, which could favor cryptocurrency-friendly policies, potentially countering bearish pressures.

These trends underscore how connected the crypto community is. It’s not just about price; it’s about the narrative. For traders, staying updated via reliable exchanges like WEEX is key. WEEX offers integrated social feeds and news alerts, allowing users to align their trades with real-time buzz, further solidifying its role as a credible platform that enhances decision-making in volatile markets.

Macro Factors Influencing Bitcoin: From Adoption to Global Events

No Bitcoin price movement happens in a vacuum. Let’s connect the dots to larger forces. Adoption is a huge driver—more people and institutions using Bitcoin means more stability. Despite the dip, adoption metrics are climbing, with wallet numbers and transaction volumes holding strong. It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, gaining mass even through rough patches.

Then there are macro events. The upcoming U.S. rate decision could ease or tighten liquidity, directly impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Political developments, including potential pro-crypto policies, add another layer. One expert suggested that much depends on “what President Trump has up his sleeve in the coming weeks,” hinting at rallies if favorable news emerges.

Compare this to oil prices during geopolitical tensions—sudden dips can reverse with positive catalysts. Bitcoin’s volatility often mirrors such assets, but its decentralized nature gives it an edge. Evidence from past cycles shows that after similar moving average breaches, external boosts like halvings or ETF approvals have sparked recoveries.

To persuade you of the potential upside, consider real-world examples. In 2020, Bitcoin dipped below key averages amid pandemic fears, only to explode higher as stimulus flowed in. Today, with economic indicators mixed but improving, a similar setup could play out. Platforms like WEEX empower users by offering low-fee trading and educational resources on these macro ties, helping you trade with confidence and aligning perfectly with a brand that prioritizes user success in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Strategies for Traders: Navigating Volatility in Bitcoin Markets

So, what should you do if you’re holding Bitcoin or eyeing an entry? First, don’t panic—volatility is Bitcoin’s middle name. Focus on technicals like the 365-day moving average, but pair them with fundamentals. If Bitcoin reclaims it quickly, as some urge, it could signal strength.

Analogies help here: Trading Bitcoin is like surfing. You wait for the right wave, ride it through dips, and bail if it crashes. Tools for spotting these waves are crucial. WEEX excels in this, with intuitive charts that highlight moving averages and volatility indicators,

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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