Cryptocurrency "No Man's Land": The Cyclical Signal Has Emerged, But Most Are Unaware
Original Article Title: The Forgotten Phase: Why the Crypto Market Might Be Stuck Between Cycles
Original Article Author: Christina Comben, The Coin Republic
Original Article Translation: Bitpush News
Key Points:
· The cryptocurrency market may be neither in a bull market nor a bear market, but rather in a "forgotten mid-cycle phase," similar to the period of calm after the end of quantitative tightening in 2019, which often foreshadows the beginning of a new uptrend.
· The Fed's policy of ending quantitative tightening, along with similar market risk sentiment levels, indicate that the crypto market is in a consolidation phase rather than a pre-crash signal.
· Despite short-term fluctuations, crypto-friendly regulatory policies, the introduction of ETFs, and large-scale institutional adoption have made the market foundation in 2025 much stronger than in 2019.
Market Status: An Undefined State
"Is it a bull market or a bear market now?" — This question, which the crypto market is most keen on discussing, may no longer be relevant by the end of 2025. As traders and analysts attempt to label the current market, they find that this market refuses to be easily defined.
The crypto prices have failed to replicate the parabolic rise of 2021, but they have also not reached the true despair of a bear market. So, what exactly is happening?
Crypto trader Dan Gambardello offers an interpretation: we may be in the "forgotten chapter" of the cycle.
This period of calm is reminiscent of the period from July to September 2019: when the market was in a consolidation phase, the Fed ended quantitative tightening, and the crypto market seemed to be in a strange lull before the next big move.
The Ghost of 2019
Looking back at the crypto news in July 2019: the Fed officially announced the end of quantitative tightening, a policy shift that marked a subtle yet significant change in global liquidity.
A few months later in September, the tightening policy came to a full stop. This conveniently paved the way for a subsequent mild uptrend, ultimately triggering the market explosion in 2020-2021.
Today, history seems to be repeating itself. The Federal Reserve has once again announced plans to end quantitative tightening in December 2025. During both of these periods, macro liquidity has started to shift, but market confidence in crypto prices has not caught up.
"The news of the end of quantitative tightening has just been announced," Gambardello stated in a video, "This is neither the peak of a bull market nor the bottom of a bear market but a blurry zone in between."
This "middle state" is often overlooked in crypto news but is actually a key stage of the cycle reset. In 2019, Bitcoin's risk score hovered around 42, very similar to the current 43. Despite different prices, market sentiment is showing a similar level of uncertainty.
Crypto Market Risk Indicators and the Value of Patience
"If you believe the end of QT will bring a liquidity boost, consider gradually building positions on any pullbacks before December 2025," Gambardello advised.
His AI-driven system named "Zero" suggests deploying funds rationally, identifying risk areas instead of chasing market momentum.
He pointed out that Ethereum's risk model score was 11 in 2019 and is now 44. Cardano's score is 29. These numbers based on volatility and sentiment data help macro investors plan their positions rather than emotionally trading the swings.
If the score falls into the 30 or 20 range, it could present an accumulation opportunity that long-term holders dream of.
Glassnode data supports this pattern. During mid-term consolidation periods, the supply held by long-term holders typically grows as speculative traders exit.
In 2019, Bitcoin long-term holders accounted for over 644% of the circulating supply; in 2025, this number is once again approaching a similar level. Patience seems to be the secret weapon of calm investors.

Chart Source: studio.glassnode.com
What the Chart Reveals
On the Ethereum weekly chart, the trend shows striking similarity. In July 2019, shortly after the end of QT, Ethereum tested its 20-week moving average, bounced back, retested it, and only truly recovered months later.
This summer, the same 20-50 week moving average crossover is once again playing out; this serves as a reminder that the market cycle always oscillates between hope and exhaustion.
Gambardello explained that the key signal to watch for would be whether Ethereum can break above the 20-week moving average. This is a short-term confirmation signal to assess if the market is set to mirror the 2019 trajectory.
Otherwise, the total market cap temporarily dropping to the $3 trillion range (compared to the current $3.6 trillion displayed on CoinMarketCap) could replay the script from that year: a dip sufficient to scare off retail investors, yet not enough to end the upward trend.
A Different Decade, Same Market Psychology
Of course, 2025 is not a mere replication of 2019. The headlines in crypto news have changed, and there have been significant macro shifts.
A crypto-friendly U.S. government is now in power. The CLEAR Act and the GENIUS Act have essentially put an end to the regulatory uncertainty that used to keep investors up at night. Ethereum ETFs are now trading.
Stablecoin issuers are under regulation. BlackRock now sits atop the throne of $250 billion in crypto ETF assets.
This institutional force will not vanish overnight. Instead, it has altered the market's rhythm, transforming the adrenaline-fueled market into a domain managed by spreadsheets and stress tests.
What we may be witnessing is not another bull or bear market, but rather a more nuanced shift: a transitional phase within a larger monetary climate system.
The Federal Reserve's liquidity pivot, the inauguration of a new chair in May, and regulatory normalization might collectively make 2025 a period of quiet preparation before the next upswing.
Gambardello doesn't believe we are entering a bear market, but rather a "frustrating consolidation phase".
Yes, it's frustrating. But perhaps it's necessary. If the 2019 crypto market taught us anything, it's that boredom is often the prelude to a breakthrough.
You may also like

Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 9th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report

"2.5 Dip" Real Reason: Wall Street Deleveraging Induced Overreaction

Kyle's review of Hyperliquid sparks controversy, Solitude Bank officially opens, what are the overseas crypto communities talking about today?

Cryptocurrency prices in the dumps, but the prediction market is going wild?
Decoding Strategy’s Latest Financial Report: After a $12.4 Billion Loss, How Long Can the Bitcoin Flywheel Keep Spinning?
When earnings reports become electrocardiograms of Bitcoin’s price, Strategy is not merely a company—it’s an experiment testing whether faith can overcome gravity.

Discover How to Participate in Staking
Staking is a digital asset yield product launched by the WEEX platform. By subscribing to Staking products, users can stake their idle digital assets and earn corresponding Staking rewards.

WEEX AI Trading Hackathon Rules & Guidelines
This article explains the rules, requirements, and prize structure for the WEEX AI Trading Hackathon Finals, where finalists compete using AI-driven trading strategies under real market conditions.

From 0 to $1 Million: Five Steps to Outperform the Market Through Wallet Tracking

Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?

February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.

Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus

Vitalik Discusses Ethereum Scaling Path, Circle Announces Partnership with Polymarket, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?

Believing in the Capital Markets - The Essence and Core Value of Cryptocurrency

Polymarket's 'Weatherman': Predict Temperature, Win Million-Dollar Payout
$15K+ Profits: The 4 AI Trading Secrets WEEX Hackathon Prelim Winners Used to Dominate Volatile Crypto Markets
How WEEX Hackathon's top AI trading strategies made $15K+ in crypto markets: 4 proven rules for ETH/BTC trading, market structure analysis, and risk management in volatile conditions.
Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 9th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report
"2.5 Dip" Real Reason: Wall Street Deleveraging Induced Overreaction
Kyle's review of Hyperliquid sparks controversy, Solitude Bank officially opens, what are the overseas crypto communities talking about today?
Cryptocurrency prices in the dumps, but the prediction market is going wild?
Decoding Strategy’s Latest Financial Report: After a $12.4 Billion Loss, How Long Can the Bitcoin Flywheel Keep Spinning?
When earnings reports become electrocardiograms of Bitcoin’s price, Strategy is not merely a company—it’s an experiment testing whether faith can overcome gravity.
Discover How to Participate in Staking
Staking is a digital asset yield product launched by the WEEX platform. By subscribing to Staking products, users can stake their idle digital assets and earn corresponding Staking rewards.