Glassnode: The $100K Defense Battle resumes - Will Bitcoin Rebound or Continue to Dip?

By: blockbeats|2025/11/06 16:00:01

Original Article Title: Defending $100k

Original Article Authors: Chris Beamish, CryptoVizArt, Antoine Colpaert, Glassnode

Original Article Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

Abstract

· Bitcoin broke below the short-term holder cost basis (approximately $112.5k), confirming weakened demand and officially marking the end of the previous bull market phase. The current price is consolidating around $100k, down approximately 21% from its all-time high (ATH).

· About 71% of the Bitcoin supply is still in a profitable state, aligning with characteristics of a mid-term correction. The 3.1% relative unrealized loss rate indicates a mild bear market phase at present, rather than a deep capitulation.

· Since July, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has decreased by 300k coins, indicating that despite the price drop, selling pressure continues — a pattern different from the early stages of this cycle's "sell the rallies" approach.

· The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen persistent outflows (daily outflows ranging from $150M to $700M), and the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) of major exchanges reveals sustained selling pressure, indicating reduced organic trading demand.

· The directional open interest premium in the perpetual contract market has decreased from a monthly average of $338M in April to $118M, suggesting traders are unwinding leveraged long positions.

· Demand for put options with a $100k strike price remains strong, with increasing premiums, showing traders are still hedging risk rather than buying the dip. Short-term implied volatility remains sensitive to price swings, but has stabilized since the spike in October.

· Overall, the market is in a fragile equilibrium state: weak demand, manageable losses, and a strong sense of caution. To achieve a sustained rebound, there is a need to reattract inflows and reclaim the $112k - $113k range.

On-Chain Insights

Following the release of last week's report, Bitcoin, after several failed attempts to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis, broke below the psychological level of $100k. This breakdown confirmed weakening demand momentum, persistent selling pressure from long-term investors, and marked the market's clear departure from the bull phase.

This article will assess market structural weakness through on-chain pricing models and expenditure-based indicators, and then combine spot, perpetual contract, and options market data to gauge market sentiment and risk positioning for the upcoming week.

Test the Support Below

Since the market crash on October 10th, Bitcoin has struggled to hold above the short-term holder cost benchmark, eventually plummeting to around $100,000, roughly 11% below the key threshold of $112,500.

Looking at historical data, when the price experiences such a significant discount to this level, the possibility of further retracement to lower structural support levels increases — for example, the current active investor realized price of around $88,500. This indicator dynamically tracks the cost basis of active circulating supply (excluding dormant tokens) and has often played a crucial reference role during extended consolidation phases in past cycles.

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Standing at a Crossroads

Further analysis reveals that the structure formed by this correction is similar to that of June 2024 and February 2025 — during these two periods, Bitcoin was at a key crossroads of "rebound" and "deep retraction." With the price at $100,000 currently, around 71% of the supply is still profitable, placing the market in a typical 70%-90% profit supply equilibrium range, signaling a mid-term slowdown.

This phase often sees a brief corrective bounce towards the short-term holder cost benchmark, but sustained recovery typically requires prolonged consolidation and new demand influx. Conversely, if further weakening leads to more holders facing losses, the market may transition from the current mild decline to a deep bear market phase. Historically, this phase is characterized by capitulative selling and long-term re-accumulation.

Tolerable Losses

To further differentiate the nature of the current pullback, one can look at the relative unrealized loss ratio — this metric measures the proportion of total unrealized losses in USD terms to market capitalization. In contrast to the extreme loss levels during the 2022-2023 bear market, the current 3.1% unrealized loss ratio indicates mild market pressure, akin to the mid-term corrections in the third and fourth quarters of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, all remaining below the 5% threshold.

As long as the unrealized loss ratio stays within this range, the market can be classified as a "mild bear market," characterized by orderly reassessment rather than panic selling. However, if the pullback intensifies and this ratio surpasses 10%, it could trigger widespread capitulative selling, signaling a more severe bear market environment.

Long-Term Holders Continuously Selling

Despite the relatively manageable level of losses and a modest 21% retreat from the historical high of $126,000, the market is still facing mild but sustained selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH). This trend has been gradually emerging since July 2025, and even the new all-time high reached in early October has not changed this pattern, catching many investors by surprise.

During this period, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has decreased by approximately 300,000 coins (from 14.7 million coins to 14.4 million coins). Unlike the sell-off wave in the early stages of this cycle when long-term holders "sold the top," this time they are choosing to "sell the dips," meaning they are reducing their holdings during price consolidation and a sustained downtrend. This shift in behavior indicates that experienced investors are showing signs of deeper fatigue and a decrease in confidence.

On-Chain Insights

Ammo Depletion: Cooling Institutional Demand

Turning our attention to institutional demand: over the past two weeks, inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF have significantly slowed, with daily net outflows ranging from $150 million to $700 million. This is a stark contrast to the strong inflows from September to early October, which provided price support.

The recent trend indicates that institutional fund allocations are becoming more cautious, with profit-taking and reduced willingness to open new positions dragging down overall ETF buying pressure. This cooling activity is closely related to the overall price weakness, highlighting a decrease in buyer confidence after months of accumulation.

Biases Evident: Weak Spot Demand

Over the past month, spot market activity has continued to decline, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) on major exchanges showing a downward trend. Both Binance and the overall spot CVD have turned negative, at -822 BTC and -917 BTC, respectively, indicating sustained selling pressure and limited active buying interest. Coinbase remains relatively neutral, with a CVD of +170 BTC, showing no clear signs of buyer absorption.

The deterioration in spot demand aligns with the slowdown in ETF inflows, indicating a decrease in retail investor confidence. These signals collectively reinforce the cooling of the market: waning buying interest, and a swift profit-taking encountered in the rebounding market.

Interest Waning: Deleveraging in the Derivatives Market

In the derivatives market, the directional premium in the perpetual futures market (i.e., the cost paid by long traders to maintain their positions) has dropped significantly from a monthly peak of $338 million in April to approximately $118 million. This notable decline indicates widespread unwinding of speculative positions, with risk appetite clearly cooling off.

After a sustained period of elevated positive funding rates in the first half of the year, the steady slide of this metric suggests that traders are reducing directional leverage, favoring a more neutral stance rather than an aggressive long exposure. This shift aligns with overall tepid spot demand and ETF inflows, highlighting that the perpetual futures market has transitioned from an optimistic bias to a more cautious risk-averse posture.

Seeking Protection: Defensive Tone in the Options Market

As Bitcoin hovers around the $100,000 psychological level, the option skew indicator unsurprisingly shows a strong demand for put options. Data indicates that the options market is not betting on a reversal or "buying the dip" but rather paying a high premium to hedge against further downside risk. Put option prices at key support levels are elevated, indicating that traders are still focused on risk protection rather than accumulating positions. In short, the market is hedging, not bottom-fishing.

Risk Premium Resurgence

After ten consecutive days of negative values, the one-month implied volatility risk premium has slightly turned positive. As anticipated, this premium exhibits mean reversion—after a tough period for gamma sellers, implied volatility reprices higher.

This shift reflects a market still dominated by cautious sentiment. Traders are willing to pay a premium for protection, enabling market makers to take on offsetting positions. It's worth noting that as Bitcoin dropped to $100,000, implied volatility rose in sync with the re-establishment of defensive positions.

Volatility Spike Followed by Retreat

Short-term implied volatility remains closely inversely correlated with price action. During Bitcoin sell-offs, volatility surged significantly, with one-period implied volatility spiking to 54% at one point, before retracing approximately 10 volatility points near $100,000.

Longer-term maturity volatilities also rose: one-month implied volatility increased by around 4 volatility points from near $110,000 pre-adjustment levels, while the six-month implied volatility rose by about 1.5 volatility points. This pattern highlights the classic "panic-volatility" relationship, where rapid price declines still drive short-term volatility spikes.

The Battle to Defend the $100,000 Mark

Observing the put options premium at a $100,000 strike price can provide further insights into the current sentiment. Over the past two weeks, the net premium of put options has gradually risen. Yesterday, as worries about the possible end of the bull market intensified, the premium surged significantly. During the sell-off period, the put options premium spiked, and even as Bitcoin stabilized near support levels, the premium remained high. This trend confirms that hedging activities persist, with traders choosing to protect rather than take on risk once again.

Defensive Fund Flows

Fund flow data from the past seven days shows that buy-side trades are dominated by negative delta positions—mainly achieved through buying put options and selling call options. In the past 24 hours, there is still no clear bottom signal. Market makers continue to hold long gamma, absorbing significant risk from profit-seeking traders and potentially capitalizing on bidirectional price swings.

This pattern has kept volatility high but manageable, with the market maintaining a cautious tone. Overall, the current environment is more conducive to defense rather than aggressive risk-taking, lacking a clear upward catalyst. However, due to the persistently high cost of downside protection, some traders may soon start selling risk premium to seek value investment opportunities.

Conclusion

Bitcoin breaking below the short-term holder cost basis (around $112,500) and stabilizing near $100,000 signals a decisive shift in market structure. As of now, this correction resembles past mid-cycle slowdown stages: 71% (in the 70%-90% range) of the supply is still in profit, and the relative unrealized loss stands at 3.1% (below 5%), indicating a mild bear market rather than a deep capitulation. However, ongoing selling by long-term holders since July and outflows from ETF products highlight weakening confidence among both retail and institutional investors.

If selling pressure continues, the active investor realized price (around $88,500) will be a key downside reference; while reclaiming the short-term holder cost basis would signal renewed demand strength. Meanwhile, directional basis swaps in the perpetual futures market and CVD skew both indicate a retreat of speculative leverage, reduced spot participation, and reinforce a risk-averse environment.

In the options market, strong demand for put options, a rise in the $100,000 strike price premium, and a slight rebound in implied volatility all confirm a defensive tone. Traders continue to prioritize protection over accumulation, reflecting a hesitancy toward the "bottom."

Overall, the market is in a fragile equilibrium: oversold but not in panic, cautious but structurally sound. The next directional move will depend on whether new demand can absorb sustained selling from long-term holders and reclaim the $112,000 - $113,000 range as strong support; or if sellers continue to dominate, extending the current downtrend.

Original Article Link

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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