Is the Shift Away from "Buying the Dip" Strategy the Reason Behind Bitcoin's Recent Drop?
Original Article Title: Why did Bitcoin's largest buyers suddenly stop accumulating?
Original Article Author: Oluwapelumi Adejumo, Crypto Slate
Original Article Translation: Luffy, Foresight News
Throughout most of 2025, Bitcoin's support level seemed unshakable due to the unexpected alliance between Corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF), collectively forming the support foundation.
Enterprises acquired Bitcoin through issuing stocks and convertible bonds, while ETF inflows quietly absorbed new supply. Together, they built a robust demand foundation that helped Bitcoin withstand the pressure of a tightening financial environment.
Now, this foundation is beginning to weaken.
On November 3, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, posted on X platform that as institutional accumulation slowed down, his bullish outlook has diminished.
He pointed out: "For the first time in 7 months, institutional net inflows fell below daily mining supply, a concerning development."
Bitcoin Institutional Buying Volume, Source: Capriole Investments
Bitcoin Institutional Buying Volume, Source: Capriole Investments
Edwards stated that even though other assets outperform Bitcoin, this indicator remains a key reason for his optimism.
However, currently, around 188 corporate treasuries hold significant Bitcoin positions, with many companies having a relatively single-focused business model besides Bitcoin exposure.
Bitcoin Treasury Accumulation Slows Down
No company represents corporate Bitcoin trading better than the recently renamed "Strategy," formerly known as MicroStrategy.
Led by Michael Saylor, this software manufacturer has transformed into a Bitcoin treasury company, currently holding over 674,000 bitcoins, securing its position as the world's largest single corporate holder.
However, its buying pace has significantly slowed down in recent months.
In the third quarter, Strategy only increased its Bitcoin holdings by about 43,000 coins, the lowest quarterly purchase amount this year. Considering that the company's Bitcoin purchases during this period plummeted to only a few hundred coins, this number is not surprising.
CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maarturn explained that the slowdown in accumulation may be related to Strategy's Net Asset Value (NAV) decline.
He stated that investors had previously paid a high "NAV premium" for each $1 of Bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet, essentially allowing shareholders to benefit from Bitcoin's price appreciation through leverage. However, this premium has significantly narrowed since mid-year.
With the dwindling valuation premium, issuing new shares to purchase Bitcoin no longer brings significant appreciation, and the incentive for corporate financing to increase holdings has decreased accordingly.
Maarturn pointed out: "The funding difficulty has increased, and the stock issuance premium has dropped from 208% to 4%."

Strategy Stock Premium, Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, the cooling trend in accumulation is not limited to Strategy.
Tokyo-listed company Metaplanet previously followed the model of this U.S. pioneer, but after a significant drop in the stock price, the recent trading price is below its Bitcoin holdings' market value.
In response, the company approved a stock repurchase plan and introduced new funding guidance to expand its Bitcoin treasury. This move demonstrates the company's confidence in its balance sheet, but also highlights that investors' enthusiasm for the "crypto treasury" business model is waning.
In fact, the slowdown in Bitcoin treasury accumulation has led to some corporate mergers.
Last month, asset management firm Strive announced the acquisition of smaller-scale Bitcoin treasury company Semler Scientific. After the merger, these companies will hold nearly 11,000 Bitcoins.
These cases reflect structural constraints rather than wavering beliefs. When stock or convertible bond issuance no longer commands a market premium, capital inflows dry up, and corporate accumulation naturally slows down.
How Are ETF Flows Doing?
Long seen as the "New Supply Absorber," the spot Bitcoin ETF has also shown similar signs of weakness.
Throughout much of 2025, these financial investment tools dominated net demand, with subscription volume consistently outpacing redemption volume, especially during Bitcoin's surge to an all-time high.
However, by late October, their fund flows became unstable. Influenced by interest rate expectations, portfolio managers adjusted positions, risk departments reduced exposure, and some weekly fund flows turned negative. This volatility marked a new phase of behavior for Bitcoin ETFs.
The macro environment has tightened, hopes for rapid rate cuts have gradually faded, and liquidity conditions have cooled. Nevertheless, the market demand for Bitcoin exposure remains strong but has shifted from "steady inflows" to "pulsed inflows."
SoSoValue's data clearly reflects this shift. In the first two weeks of October, cryptocurrency asset investment products attracted nearly $6 billion in inflows; however, by the end of the month, with redemptions exceeding $20 billion, some of the inflows were wiped out.

Bitcoin ETF Weekly Fund Flows, Source: SoSoValue
This pattern indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have matured into a true two-way market. They can still provide deep liquidity and institutional access channels but are no longer just one-way accumulation tools.
When macro signals fluctuate, ETF investors' exit speed may be just as rapid as their entry speed.
Market Impact on Bitcoin
This shift does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will experience a decline, but it does indicate increased volatility. As the absorption capacity of corporations and ETFs weakens, Bitcoin's price trajectory will be increasingly influenced by short-term traders and macro sentiment.
Edwards believes that, in this scenario, new catalysts—such as monetary easing, regulatory clarity, or a return of stock market risk appetite—could reignite institutional buying.
However, at present, marginal buyers are more cautious, making price discovery more sensitive to the global liquidity cycle.
The impact is primarily manifested in two aspects:
First, the structural buy orders that once served as support are diminishing. During periods of insufficient absorption, intraday volatility may intensify as there is a lack of stable buyers to curb volatility. The halving in April 2024 technically reduced new supply, but without sustained demand, scarcity alone cannot guarantee price increases.
Second, Bitcoin's correlated features are shifting. As the balance sheet accumulation cools off, the asset may once again follow overall liquidity cycle dynamics. Periods of rising real rates and a strong dollar could create price pressure, while loose conditions could see it reestablishing leadership in risk-on rallies.
Essentially, Bitcoin is re-entering a macro reflexivity phase, behaving more like a high-beta risk asset rather than digital gold.
At the same time, all this does not negate Bitcoin's long-term narrative as a scarce, programmable asset. Instead, it reflects the increasing influence of institutional dynamics—entities that shielded Bitcoin from retail-driven volatility are now tightening its correlation with broader capital markets, cementing its mainstream portfolio allo-cation.
The coming months will test whether Bitcoin can hold its store of value characteristics in the absence of corporate and ETF auto-matic inflows.
By historical analogy, Bitcoin has often exhibited adaptability. As one demand channel wanes, another emerges—whether from sovereign reserves, fintech integration, or retail re-engagement in a macro easing cycle.
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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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