Oil Prices Decline Resumes, as Trump Talks Down Prices and EIA Inventories Climb

Crude oil prices recovered from April’s lows but remain volatile as trade developments, inventory data, and political pressure drive sentiment. In early April, the implementation of global trade duties sent shockwaves through commodity markets, causing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to collapse to around $55 per barrel. A technical support zone emerged at those levels, briefly stabilizing prices before a tentative rebound took hold. Trade Optimism Offers Temporary Relief Recent headlines pointing to progress in US–China trade negotiations helped lift sentiment, with Brent crude reaching above $66 and WTI climbing near $63. Hopes that the tariff dispute could be resolved sooner than expected led to a brief recovery across risk assets, including oil. Inventory Build Caps Gains However, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a 4 million barrel increase in domestic crude inventories for the week ending May 9. This supply boost weighed on prices, pushing WTI back below $63, down roughly $1 on the day, especially after failing to break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key resistance level. Kazakhstan Output Drop Adds Brief Support A short-lived rally followed news that Kazakhstan’s oil output had declined in April, hinting at tightening global supply. However, the rebound proved temporary as selling pressure resumed in the US session. Political Pressure: Trump Favors Lower Oil Prices Additional downside momentum came from reports that President Donald Trump is actively advocating for lower oil prices. Analysis from Goldman Sachs , citing Trump’s social media commentary, suggests the White House is comfortable with WTI in the $40–$50 range, a level that could cap any sustained rally. Weekly U.S. Energy Inventory Data (Week Ending May 9) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) The latest weekly data paints a mixed picture for the U.S. oil market. While crude inventories rose sharply, catching the market off guard, refined product stocks (gasoline and distillates) dropped more than expected—pointing to resilient downstream demand. Increased refinery activity further underscores preparation for higher fuel consumption ahead. However, the crude build may weigh on prices in the short term, especially if demand expectations falter or export flows soften. Conclusion: Volatile Path Ahead for Oil Markets Despite some encouraging trade signals, rising inventories and political headwinds are keeping crude oil gains in check. Unless fundamental supply-demand imbalances shift or geopolitical risks flare, prices may remain range-bound in the short term—particularly if technical resistance levels like the 50-day SMA continue to reject upward moves. US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart