Predicting Who Stays And Who Goes

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – APRIL 08: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 and Bobby Portis #9 speak with Kevin ... More Porter Jr. #3 during a game against the Minnesota Timberwolves of the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on April 08, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) The Milwaukee Bucks face a tricky road this offseason. Like any complicated puzzle, it’s best approached one piece at a time—slowly shaping the picture before locking in the final moves. This series aims to do just that. We’ll break things down piece by piece—unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents, player options, trade tools, and external targets—to help outline the Bucks’ best path forward. Today, we start with the players who hold the keys to their own futures. Let’s predict who stays, who goes, and who might be halfway out the door already. Pat Connaughton – $9.423 million This one feels like a layup. Unless he decides to do the Bucks a massive favor, Pat Connaughton is almost certainly picking up the final year of his deal and riding out one last season in Milwaukee. There was a time when Connaughton was a valuable cog in the rotation. Back in 2021-22, he played 65 games (starting 19), averaged 9.9 points and 4.2 rebounds, and knocked down nearly 40 percent of his threes. That stretch earned him a three-year, $28 million extension. But those days are in the rearview mirror. His three-point percentage has fallen below 34 percent over the past three seasons, and his athleticism—once a calling card—hasn’t aged well. His defensive switchability has taken a hit, and his impact has faded. If he were to test the market, Connaughton would likely be looking at veteran minimum offers, if anything at all. That gives him every reason to opt in and cash out one last time in Milwaukee. Kevin Porter Jr. – $2.546 million Kevin Porter Jr. looks like a player ready to bet on himself—and cash in. After a rocky run with the Clippers earlier in the season, where he averaged just 9.3 points on a sluggish 45.5 percent effective field goal percentage, he was traded to Milwaukee and immediately found new life. His scoring jumped to 11.7 points per game, his shooting touch returned (55.3 percent eFG), as his three-point and free-throw percentages climbed sharply. Porter’s resurgence makes it likely he’ll decline his modest $2.5 million player option in favor of something longer and more lucrative. The Bucks, who sparked this bounce-back, may try to keep him around using part of their $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception—so long as the price doesn’t spiral out of reach. A short-term deal—say two years with a player option—would give Porter both security and flexibility to re-enter free agency again while his value is trending up. Bobby Portis – $13.445 million Now we’re in murkier waters. Bobby Portis is the toughest call of the bunch. His recent comments on a podcast hinted at a player leaning toward declining his option, and given his situation, that wouldn’t be shocking. Portis appeared in just 49 games last season due to a 25-game suspension, but still averaged a solid 13.9 points and 8.4 rebounds. However, it’s noteworthy that his scoring efficiency took a hit. He shot just 36.5 percent from deep—his lowest mark since joining Milwaukee—and his overall scoring efficiency slid back to pre-Bucks levels. The front office has to ask some tough questions: Can Portis thrive in a more prominent role if Brook Lopez walks in free agency? Or do they see his ceiling already capped, especially in today’s NBA where stretch bigs are expected to protect the rim and move the ball quickly? Portis remains a fan favorite—his motor, grit, and energy are contagious—but his style doesn’t always mesh with the modern game. He can be a ball-stopper on offense and a liability on defense without elite rim protection. If Portis is looking for a bigger payday or expanded role, the Bucks will need to decide whether he’s part of the next core—or a piece they reluctantly let walk. Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/briansampson/2025/05/14/milwaukee-bucks-player-options-predicting-who-stays-and-who-goes/