Robinhood Impressive Q3 Financial Report: Profit Triples, 'Event Contracts' Emerge as a New Growth Engine
Original Title: "Revenue Doubled, Profit Tripled: Robinhood's Earnings Report Exceeds Expectations, Explosive Growth in Options Trading | Earnings Insight"
Original Authors: He Hao, Long Yue, Wall Street News
The "American Retail Investor Hub" Robinhood has delivered an impressive third-quarter performance.
The online brokerage's third-quarter earnings report released on Wednesday showed that both its revenue and profit exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Thanks to the overall growth in cryptocurrency, options, and stock trading volumes, the company's transaction-based revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driving net profit from $150 million in the same period last year to $556 million. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency revenue surged by 300%, but fell short of expectations.
Despite strong performance, Robinhood's stock price still saw a slight decline in after-hours trading. The company also announced a significant senior leadership change, with its CFO of over seven years, Jason Warnick, planning to retire in 2026. The company has appointed Shiv Verma, Senior Vice President of Finance and Strategy, as his successor. This smooth transition is aimed at ensuring the continuity of the company's strategy.
So far this year, Robinhood's stock price has risen by nearly 270% and was included in the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter. What was once seen as a retail investor frenzy during the pandemic now seems to have evolved into a force shaping the market, and Robinhood has successfully capitalized on this trend.

Robinhood Third-Quarter Earnings Report Highlights: Performance Significantly Exceeds Expectations, Trading Revenue Doubles
Key Financial Data:
· Revenue: Net revenue for the third quarter was $1.27 billion, analysts expected $1.21 billion.
· EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $742 million, analysts expected $726.9 million.
· Earnings Per Share: $0.61, exceeding expectations of $0.53, compared to earnings per share of $0.17 in the same period last year.
· Net Profit: Net profit increased to $556 million, significantly higher than the net profit of $150 million in the same period last year.
· ARPU: Third-quarter ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) was $191, analysts expected $182.
· Monthly Active Users: Q3 monthly active users were 13.8 million, compared to analysts' expectations of 13.31 million.
Segment Data:
· Q3 Transaction-Based Revenue: $730 million, compared to analysts' expectation of $725.8 million.
· Q3 Cryptocurrency Revenue: $268 million, a 300% increase, but below analysts' expectation of $287.2 million.
· Q3 Options Revenue: $304 million, compared to analysts' expectation of $301.3 million.
The core driver of performance growth came from the strong recovery in the transaction business. In the third quarter, the company's transaction-based revenue reached $730 million, more than doubling year-over-year. Stock trading revenue grew by 132%, options trading revenue grew by 50%, and cryptocurrency trading revenue surged by 300% to $268 million, slightly below the analysts' expectation of $287.2 million.
“Event Contracts” Emerging as a Growth Engine
One of the most striking highlights in the financial report was the explosive growth of the “Event Contracts” (Prediction Markets) business. In the third quarter, the trading volume of event contracts on the platform surged to 2.3 billion shares, more than doubling from the previous quarter.
According to the soon-to-retire CFO Jason Warnick, the start of the fourth quarter has been even stronger, with the trading volume in just October surpassing 2.5 billion shares. This included approximately $25 million from the platform's prediction market business.
Recently, Robinhood expanded the scope of event contracts from the original sports and finance to further include politics, entertainment, and technology. Robinhood, in partnership with Kalshi, allows users to bet on the “yes/no” outcomes of future events related to sports, politics, entertainment, and technology.
Warnick stated in the announcement that the prediction market business has become one of the company's new business lines contributing approximately $100 million in annualized revenue. The incoming CFO Shiv Verma also emphasized in an interview: “This is a new asset class, and we want to be at the forefront. This is one of the areas we are focusing our investments on.”
Event contracts still represent only a small part of Robinhood's overall revenue. However, the prediction market business has seen rapid growth in recent weeks: Piper Sandler's analysts estimate that the trading volume on Kalshi and the competing platform Polymarket nearly doubled in October. Analysts also note that these two platforms saw their two most active trading days since the 2024 election this past weekend.
However, such prediction market contracts—especially those related to sports and entertainment—have also sparked controversy as they blur the line between investment and gambling.
Executive Insights: Banking, Venture Business to Roll Out Successively
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated:
"Our team continues to rapidly roll out new products, driving record-breaking business performance in the third quarter, and we won't slow down—prediction market business is growing rapidly, Robinhood banking business is starting to roll out gradually, and Robinhood venture business is also about to launch."
CFO Jason Warnick commented in the announcement:
"The third quarter once again saw strong and profitable growth, as we continue to drive business diversification, adding two new business lines with annualized revenues of approximately $1 billion or more—Prediction Markets and Bitstamp."
CFO Announces Retirement Plan, Internal Promotion of Successor
Robinhood announced in its earnings report that Chief Financial Officer Jason Warnick will retire in 2026. This executive, who previously worked at Amazon, has been with Robinhood for over seven years and has been a key figure in the company's development.
As per the plan, Warnick will complete the transition in the first quarter of 2026 and will continue to serve as a strategic advisor until September 1, 2026. The company has appointed Senior Vice President of Finance and Strategy Shiv Verma as the next CFO. This move is seen as an internal promotion to ensure a smooth transition of financial strategy within the company.
Analysis and Commentary: Diversification Strategy Pays Off, Moving Towards a FinTech Company
Robinhood has been striving to diversify its revenue streams to reduce reliance on its trading business. Earlier this week, the company announced a partnership with Sage Home Loans to allow its customers to access home loans. Additionally, the company also plans to launch a closed-end fund to give U.S. retail investors exposure to pre-IPO companies.
Analysts note that Robinhood's third-quarter performance, announced on Wednesday, exceeded Wall Street expectations, continuing its strong performance this year and making it one of the standout companies among large U.S. tech stocks this year. Robinhood is betting that the new generation of investors will want to not only trade stocks on the same platform but also bet on sports, culture, and political events. So far, it seems this bet is paying off.
As Robinhood expands its business to comprehensive wealth management, the company is gradually narrowing the gap with Coinbase. The company has been attracting Fidelity and Schwab customers by actively offering deposit match incentives and has been driving its AUM growth through the acquisition of TradePMR.
Robinhood primarily targets retail investors. Robinhood was originally known for its user-friendly platform that made it easy for beginners to buy and sell stocks. However, today, its trading business has expanded significantly: in the third quarter, nearly 90% of Robinhood's trading-related revenue came from categories other than stocks, including options, futures, and cryptocurrencies.
David Bartosiak, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, wrote in a morning report, "This is no longer the Robinhood of the pandemic era. It is now leaner, more diverse, and quietly growing into a true fintech contender."
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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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