What New Census Data Show

(Photo by Paul Hennessy/Anadolu via Getty Images) In April, the Census released its report on registration and voting in the 2024 election. The data make it possible to look at many voter characteristics such as race and ethnicity, gender, age, family income, and much more. The trend data on voters is valuable, but I’m especially interested in a different question the Census includes in this series. The Census also asks people who are registered but didn’t vote why they didn’t do so. I focus on this question because of the drumbeat of news stories each election season claiming there are significant difficulties or impediments to voting. Those concerns among others persuaded Democrats to introduce legislation at the beginning of President Biden’s term which would have federalized many aspects of elections. The legislation, which passed the House but not the Senate, would have required states to provide automatic voter registration, established same day registration and voting, put in place two weeks of early voting, and expand vote by mail. In March, President Trump recently issued an Election Integrity Executive Order that would require, among other things, proof of citizenship to vote. Court challenges are expected. The new Census data do not suggest that impediments are a significant or even minor reason why nonvoters don’t vote. Before reviewing the data, a cautionary note about the data is in order. The Census data are what we call “recall” data, which means the Census goes into the field after the election and asks people if they were registered and voted. Many people still give what they see as the civically correct response and tell Census interviewers that they voted, when in fact some did not. Still, this Census release is widely used by academics and others to show trends in voting by specific characteristics. The Census has been providing this invaluable data for every national election since 1964. Nonvoters in the Census data have already taken the step to register, yet still they don’t vote. The top explanation for this group in 2024 was that they were “not interested” with nearly two in ten voters, 19.7%, giving this response. That was followed by being too busy (17.8%), and not liking the candidates or campaign issues (14.7%). Illness or disability was chosen by 12.4% and 7.4% said they were out of town. Four percent told interviewers they simply forgot. There were some unsurprising subgroup differences among nonvoters. Thirty-five percent of those in the 65 and over group said illness or disability prevented them from voting compared to 2.8%for the youngest presumably healthier age group, those ages 18-24. The top three responses were the same for whites, blacks and Hispanics, but black and Hispanic nonvoters were more likely than whites to say they weren’t interested. High school grads were slightly more likely to give the not interested response than those with a BA or more. As for possible voting impediments, 3.6% in the Census report said they had registration problems, 2.4% said their voting places were inconvenient, and 2.2% noted transportation problems. These responses augment responses from a 2024 PRRI poll. Fewer than 2% said they faced impediments to voting such as being told they didn’t have the correct ID, or, separately, that their name wasn’t on the list though they were registered. One percent said they were harassed or bothered. The one problem a lot of voters had was long lines (17%), something local election officials can work to correct. The dearth of serious voting impediments is long-standing finding in polls. To take just one, a 1983 report by ABC News and Harvard looked closely at likely and unlikely voters. Jeff Alderman of ABC wrote that both groups did “not perceive major logistical obstacles to voting in either the registration or election process. They are generally satisfied with voting procedures. . .” In this poll, a similar number of nonvoters gave the “too busy” and “long lines” response the Census has tracked. Other studies since that time confirm that impediments are not a significant problem for the vast majority of citizens. So why do we hear so much about voting impediments in election years? First, we should know about real impediments and correct them because voting is important and gives people a say in how government works. It is also always worth examining proposed changes to see if they will make the system work better. But it also appears that both parties use the issue to try to secure political advantage – to appeal to their base voters and widen their appeal. But getting the federal government more involved in a system that needs some improvements but works very well across the country seems to me at least to be a big mistake. Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bowmanmarsico/2025/05/12/why-nonvoters-dont-vote-what-new-census-data-show/