Greeks.live: O consenso aponta para a baixa volatilidade permanecendo durante as próximas duas semanas, sugerindo que o mercado pode continuar a ser plano e diminuir gradualmente
By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/23 17:55:36
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BlockBeats News, 23 de dezembro, Greeks.live afirmou nas redes sociais que esta semana cai durante o feriado de Natal, e o mercado de ações dos EUA ficará fechado na noite de Natal e no dia de Natal. Durante este período, os investidores institucionais e retalhistas na Europa e nos EUA geralmente não negociam, e essa tendência geralmente continua até depois do Ano Novo. Esta sexta-feira (26) é o dia de liquidação anual, com mais de 50% do total de opções abertas atualmente à espera de expiração.
A maioria das instituições escolheu rolar posições com antecedência. A partir da semana passada, a volatilidade implícita (IV) de todas as principais datas de vencimento começou a diminuir significativamente, acompanhado de um aumento nas operações de block.
Sob o efeito combinado da volatilidade decrescente, o período de negociação de Natal e a rolagem da posição de fim de ano, no último mês, a volatilidade implícita de todas as principais datas de vencimento do Bitcoin caiu em mais de 5%, com a IV de curto a médio prazo caindo em mais de 10%.
Esses dados coletivamente indicam uma expectativa de mercado moderada, com consenso apontando para uma volatilidade baixa sustentada nas próximas duas semanas. O mercado provavelmente permanecerá plano durante o próximo semestre e é altamente provável que tende gradualmente para baixo.
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